Monday, March 07, 2005
Kyoto In The Distance
Kyoto apologists are staring into a mirror, either at themselves or at a world that is rapidly receding. The technical and philosophical shortcomings of this piece of self-congratulatory bureaucratic group-think are odious enough. Among the former, count the possibility that the combined pollution from cooking fires in Asia and Africa contributes more to global heating than freeways choked with SUVs. Among the latter, consider that Kyoto is a naked attempt to punish the U.S. for it success while letting stagnant and developing economies off the hook. Freshman level (non-Marxist) economics students know that U.S. consumer dynamism is all that separates many of these countries from stagnation or poverty.
But even if all or none of that were true, surely events will render Kyoto hand-wringing irrelevant, even fatuous. Just consider the growing demand for petroleum, not just in the U.S., but in China and Japan as well. Nothing Chirac, the EU, and the UN can say or do will change the forces at play. Indulging them, at the cost of failure in the bigger game, is, if not political suicide, at least as good a substitute for it as can presently be found.
The Belmont Club blog links to a Congressional Research Service Report called Rising Energy Competition and Energy Security in Northeast Asia (available from Gallerywatch.Com). Wretchard, in his 'Energy Futures' piece, summarizes some of the report's findings:
The conclusion is apparent:
In another post called 'Hormuz', Wretchard, with an important link to Austin Bay, analyzes Teheran's current threat to shut down the Straits of Hormuz and thereby bring oil-dependent countries to their knees.
Both these Belmont Club pieces are important reads for Monday.
But even if all or none of that were true, surely events will render Kyoto hand-wringing irrelevant, even fatuous. Just consider the growing demand for petroleum, not just in the U.S., but in China and Japan as well. Nothing Chirac, the EU, and the UN can say or do will change the forces at play. Indulging them, at the cost of failure in the bigger game, is, if not political suicide, at least as good a substitute for it as can presently be found.
The Belmont Club blog links to a Congressional Research Service Report called Rising Energy Competition and Energy Security in Northeast Asia (available from Gallerywatch.Com). Wretchard, in his 'Energy Futures' piece, summarizes some of the report's findings:
[The report] shows that world consumption of petroleum will increase dramatically, driven by economic growth in North America and Asia Pacific. The projected US consumption for petroleum will grow from 24 in 2001 to 34 million barrels per day in 2020. In that period, Chinese consumption will grow to equal that of the United States and will be poised to exceed it.
This gigantic appetite for petroleum has had two immediate effects. It has made China dependent on ever-increasing quantities Middle Eastern oil and turned it into rival of Japan, and to a lesser extent the United States, for new sources of oil and gas. Over the same period European petroleum consumption is projected to remain unchanged, largely as a consequence of flat growth, a bystander to this unfolding drama. The two great Asian nation's need for oil has embroiled them in a rivalry for the reserves in Russian Siberia.
Yet even the great reserves of Central Asia will be unlikely to satisfy the gargantuan demands of China. Between 2001 and 2020, Siberian oil field production is predicted to rise from 8 to 15 million barrels per day. In that period, Middle Eastern oil field output will climb from 22 to 36 million barrels per day and every drop of that will be required to meet the projected demand. (CRS 2). China, once capable of isolating itself from the world, will become dependent for its economic existence on oilfields in the distant Middle East and the ability to transport the fuel to its factories.
The conclusion is apparent:
However that may be, the CRS report paints a picture of a world far, far different from that envisioned by the Kyoto Protocol: one in which a senescent Europe of uncertain composition dreams under the protection of the Pacific hemisphere. Which comes to pass depends on many things that cannot be foreseen, such as unanticipated technological breakthroughs and on the statecraft of the next two decades.
In another post called 'Hormuz', Wretchard, with an important link to Austin Bay, analyzes Teheran's current threat to shut down the Straits of Hormuz and thereby bring oil-dependent countries to their knees.
Both these Belmont Club pieces are important reads for Monday.
# posted by mds : 9:06 AM
